I'm not sure how much of this is driven by the Pac 12's voting structure. At least when it had 10 members, expansion required a unanimous vote. This argument was used against the inclusion of BYU, a very conservative religious school likely to raise objections from Stanford and Berkeley. I assume they still have a unanimous voting requirement and it is quite likely that at least one member objected to expanding beyond 12 teams.
Notably this also works against reports that have identified Missouri as the SEC's next expansion target. If the Big 12 can hold onto its current 9 members and quickly add a 10th, it could very well survive and Missouri would have no need to move. Call this Scenario 1.
Scenario 2 sees Oklahoma as still desiring to leave the conference, and with the Pac 12 off the table the SEC is a strong option. The Big 12 implodes, current members find homes where they can, and the remnants probably merge with the Big East.
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