Simply put, the people actually making the decisions about conference expansion are not trying to create any particular arrangement of conferences. Each conference is out for its own selfish interests. They will not expand because it will make a playoff easier to create. They will not expand simply to get to an arbitrary number like 16, and they will not expand simply because other conferences do so.
Consider the SEC's behavior. Some weeks ago Mike Slive remarks off hand that “I could get to 16 (teams) in 15 minutes." But he hasn't so far, and all indications are that choosing a 14th team is not going to be easy. In fact, the SEC might choose to endure the irregularities of a 13 team schedule for a year rather than add a team in a hurry. Things can always change, but even the addition of A&M has hit a snag with threats of litigation from the Big 12 rank and file. I personally believe that A&M will ultimately join the SEC despite these hurdles, but for now it certainly looks like there is at least a chance that A&M could end up in limbo for a year, and they are certainly in limbo now, having left the Big 12 but lacking an invitation to another conference.
This is certainly a far cry from 16 teams in 15 minutes.
The SEC also presents evidence for another argument about conference realignment. The conferences are not expanding just to expand. They are trying to pry the marquee football programs out of the Big 12. The B1G has already taken Nebraska, and now the Pac 12 and SEC are fighting over the likes of Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Texas. For conferences, expansion is about adding value.
Keep in mind that when expanding to 12 teams it is not as critical to add especially valuable teams, as the extra revenue from a conference championship game offsets the costs associated with adding members. This explains why the Pac 12 expanded despite not adding any marquee football names. Colorado and Utah are fine schools in their own right, but neither is on the same level (in football) as Nebraska, OU, or UT.
Compare expansion to 12 with expansion to 16. When expanding to 16, there is no added benefit like a conference championship game to offset the division of revenue into smaller pieces. Each addition will have to pull its own weight. As far as the SEC is concerned, A&M fits the bill. They are a wealthy institution that is a significant ratings draw in Texas. Although their recent football history is not great, they are a classic sleeping giant that the conference can confidently add. This is why the SEC wants Texas A&M: it adds value, plain and simple. The trick will be to find an appropriate 14th school. Two names jump out to me immediately: Virginia Tech and Florida State. Other names that have been batted around add considerably less value. Such schools include WVU, Missouri, and Clemson.
Consider that given the uncertainty surrounding the 14th member adding two additional members to go to 16 teams is even trickier. The real story here is not the emergence of superconferences, but a feeding frenzy caused by the destruction of the Big 12. The major conferences are essentially trying to pick up the cream of the Big 12 crop without getting too much chaff in the deal. If the SEC could get them, they would pick up Oklahoma and Texas in a heartbeat. So would the Pac 12. If they could do it without taking Texas Tech or Baylor in the deal so much the better.
Finally, an important consequence of this line of thinking is that there are no life rafts for good but not great schools that get lost in the shuffle. The B1G won't bail out Kansas or Iowa State if those schools are left out, just to be nice. They will stay at 12 teams before they add programs that are going to take money away from existing members without generating value in return, and the same goes for the SEC.
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