Big 12 Implosion Scenarios

Here are some possible endgames for the Big 12 as it currently stands:

1. Armageddon Averted:

The rank and file Big 12 members succeed through a combination of legal threats and exit fees to prevent Texas A&M from leaving. The Oklahoma schools decide to stay as well. The SEC, failing to agree on a 14th team, decides that expansion isn't worth it. The Big 12 continues with 10 members and possibly adds two more to go back to 12 in the next few years.

Almost certain not to happen. I honestly don't know if Texas A&M is too far along in the process to go back.

2. The Storm Blows Over

Texas A&M ultimately pays whatever exit fees and buyouts are required, the legal issues sort themselves out through a settlement or otherwise, and Texas A&M becomes the SEC's 14th member. Then, the SEC decides to add another member from the Big East or ACC. Probably West Virginia, but potentially Virginia Tech or Florida State. The Big 12 acts quickly and adds BYU as its 10th member, the Oklahoma schools agree to stay, and the conference is able to obtain similar television money.

This is the most likely scenario under which the Big 12 survives in something close to its current form.

3. The Texas and Scrubs Show #1

Texas A&M joins the SEC. The SEC does not add Missouri. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State join the Pac 12, bringing it to 14 teams, but the other schools stay to form a new age Southwest Conference with some combination of BYU, SMU, Houston, UTEP, and/or New Mexico.

4. The Texas and Scrubs Show #2

Texas A&M joins the SEC. The SEC does not add Missouri. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and two other schools join the Pac 12 to form the Pac 16, creating the first "inevitable" superconference. Texas decides to create a new age Southwest Conference by adding some combination of BYU, SMU, Houston, UTEP, and/or New Mexico. The old Big 12 north schools decide to hang around because they do not have a good alternative. The Big East stands pat.

5. The Texas and Scrubs Show #3

Texas A&M joins the SEC. The SEC does not add Missouri. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and two other schools join the Pac 12 to form the Pac 16, creating the first (inevitable) superconference. Three other schools join the Big East football schools in creating a new 12 member football conference as described in my previous post. Texas, rather than going independent, decides to lord over a new age Southwest Conference, adding some combination of BYU, SMU, Houston, UTEP, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Tulsa, and/or North Texas.

In this scenario, Texas could also go independent in football. Perhaps BYU could join this conference for its non-revenue sports as an independent in football as well.

6. Big 12 Explodes

Texas A&M joins the SEC. Four more schools break off and join the Pac 12. If it doesn't go along to the Pac 12, Texas goes independent and joins, say, the MWC in non-revenue sports. Three or five more schools join the Big East football schools. Perhaps Missouri ends up in the SEC. Some of these schools get left out in the cold: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, or Baylor. The cold means joining the MWC, WAC, Sunbelt, or CUSA.

Note that in this scenario we still do not have the "inevitable" superconferences. The B1G is likely to stand pat unless Notre Dame wants to join, and the SEC might only go to 14. The new Football Big East would have 12 members, and the ACC would also stick with 12. The other conferences would watch and wait to see how the 14 and 16 team models play out at the highest levels of college football.